eXponential Trader

Czasz Method - eXamining a gambling method to reap in profits or break even

October 6th, 2007

I came up with an idea to make money gambling in in such a way which always profits or at least breaks even.

The basic premise is this; bet on one to x odds, x number of times and your odds of reaching the 1 in x odds before you reaching x number of tries are on your side. Increasing x to higher values makes it even more redundant (less chance of failure), but also decreasing your overall winnings.

Example is if your throwing darts and you have a 1 in 10 odd of hitting the center, you will hit the center within 10 tries. But the odds you’ll hit it within the first 9 tries is 90%. The 90% odds are great, ones that are definitely worth the risk. In addition to this is you can keep doing the bet each time in advance, so is if you win on your 4th try then you come away with the 1 in 10 win, and don’t need to even waste anything on the 5 to 9 tries. See the potential here?

I’m testing this out and documenting about it here. I will be using NFL games and Sports Action Odds (British Columbia’s sports gambling name). Sports Action Oddset is used where you have options of Visitor, Tie (game within 3 points), and Home. I’m also an NFL fan so the picks will be a little influenced from my knowledge of the teams.

The odds are shown here.

Odds (x) I choose will be 1 in 10. (I will not be able to get exactly 1 in 10 odds each time so I’ll try within a +- 10% range.

So I did 10 different slips of combinations that combine to make 1 in 10 odds each +-10%, 9 of which I will actually play and 1 which will be a control group left at the end to show that if it was needed we could of used it to break even (probably won’t be much of an effect but still needs to be in place)

Pictures of the slips are shown below.

The control group I set up was as follows
Miami At Houston - Houston Wins (1.65)
Baltimore At San Francisco - San Francisco Wins (2.40)
Chicago at Green Bay - Chicago Wins (2.50)

The only reason I did all 9 games at once is to speed up this test and get results right away. In real life I’d do this one week at a time, so that when I did actually win I wouldn’t have to do the remaining of the games. The games are numbered off 1 through 9, and control group being 10.

Now we will wait till end of Sunday to see the results.

Entry Filed under: Mad Money