Experiment Round 2 - changing the approach a little

October 13th, 2007

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This is in follow up to my previous post found here.

Ok so it’s Week 6 of the NFL and time for me to do another experiment. By using last week’s results where none of the 10, 1-to-10 odd parlays won, I’ll try to figure out reasons why it didn’t work.

The best reason I can think of it not working is a little hard to explain. The parlay odds all were 1/10, but the average odds were 1/2.157 per winning game pick. So using the parlays that had 3 games, it would equal exactly 1 in 10.04 odd just like I picked for the week (and it should have REALLY WORKED). But looking at the week before that (week 4) the average odds were 1/2.67 which with three games would give an overall 1/19.0 odds. 19.0 is just (2.67)^3. So this average odd per game changes by a considerable amount each week and can’t be predicted ahead of time for any advantage.

I thought about point spread as the approach, but the house really takes over since if you pick two games each with 1/2 odds you’ll only get 1/2 overall instead of 1/4. Then on 3 games you get 1/4, 4=> 1/8, 5=> 1/15, 6=>1/25 and so on..

So it lead me to thinking how the parlays all shared games with other ones. It meant 1 loosing game affects 1 to about 4 parlays. This is a real problem. So for this week, the parlays will not rely on each other (just last 2 since not enough games to pick on this Sunday and I had to include other sporting events outside than NFL).

week 6 sporting picks
Taken from https://playnow.bclc.com/BCCF/forwardODST.do

Using 1/9 odds with +- 10%
84 T, 85 V Odds 1/9
86 H, 87 T, 89 H Odds 1/9.49
88 V, 91 H Odds 1/9
90 T, 92 V, 99V Odds 1/8.30
93 T, 98 H Odds 1/8.20
94 V, 95 H, 97 H Odds 1/8.78
96 H, 100 T Odds 1/9
91 H, 97 H, 100 H, 101 V Odds 1/9.30 (shared games)
Control Group: 88 H, 90 V, 96T Odds 1/8.87 (shared games)

I won’t actually wager this time around. Also pretend we’re doing each parlay 1 week at a time (just like explained in the post where once you win you take your winnings and walk away and not do the rest of the parlays since it’s unconventional)

Will follow up on this once results are out.

Entry Filed under: gambling

1 Comment Add your own

  • 1. thomas  |  October 14th, 2007 at 11:22 am

    Cool site

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