The trend for the playoffs has been that the spread usually was covered by the underdog, and thats what my previous bets have capitalized on. I’ve been 5 for 5 recently. To make it 6 for 6 I’m changing it up a little. I’m picking the favourite, and also predicting a high scoring game.
Some interesting stats
Patriots average point total from 2007 NFL Season and playoffs: 35.6
Average points Patriots won by from 2007 Season and playoffs: 18.6
Week 17 Game New England Vs. Giants point total: 73
On top of that superbowl games tend to have higher scores since everyone goes the extra mile and since the pressure is on, so more reason to think the spread will be covered.
After running through hundreds of parlays…For parlays of 3 games with 1/13 odds
Average Winning Odds: 12.57 # Parlays Correct with 1/13 odds: 5.16% (as compared to 100%/13 = 7.69%)
When running same script with 1/9 odds Average Winning Odds : 12.19 (same as before and makes sense why) # Parlays Correct with 1/9 odds: 4.92%, 5.83% (as compared to 100%/9 = 11.11%)
So there is a range that maximizes your odds of winning, still needing to find it more precisely.
New Mexico v San Diego State - Straight up New Mexico 1.267
Minnesota Wild v St Louis Blues - Minesota Wild -1.5 - 3.2
Colorado State v UNLV - Colorado State straight up 2.25
Results
16:30 Oct 20, 2007 New Mexico 20 - 17 San Diego State
16:35 Oct 20, 2007 Minnesota Wild 3 - 1 St Louis Blues
17:00 Oct 20, 2007 Colorado State 48 - 23 UNLV
So again the method worked!
Say you would of bet $100 on each parlay, it would of taken you 4 parlays
- 4 x $100 Parlays
+ 1 win of $100 x 9.12 = $912
—————————–
+$512 profit
Thats a 128% profit… Too bad I didn’t bet cause of the stupid credit card.
Ok so I just showed you guys a highly profitable method, 2 weeks in a row so far. Should I be giving out this for free?? I’m also happy that these worked on a different type of system other than standard oddset I’ve been using before.
I’m working on some new method, that if I’m correct will be unbelievable results… Really excited about it.
Got my wisdom teeth pulled out yesterday, one of the worst experiences in my life. So I’m in bed bored and wanting to finally use my method this time. Instead of doing it at the local BCLC retailer I’ll be use Intertops, an online sportsbook.
So here are my random picks, all that will have 1/9 +10% odds and none overlap, and all happen at different times.
Before: 12:00
Wake Forest Vs. Navy - Straight Up Navy 2.3
Wyomig Vs. Air Froce - Straight up Wyomig
Texas A&M Vs. Nebraska - Straight up Nebraska 1.769
Before 14:00
South Africa v England South Africa -8.5
Toronto Argonauts v Montreal Alouettes - Montreal Alhoutes 1 - 1.909
Texas Tech v Missouri - Straight up Texas Tech
Before 16:30
Chicago Blackhawks v Toronto Maple Leafs - Blackhawks +1.5 - 1.625
Kansas State v Oklahoma State - Kansas State Straight up 2.15
Kansas v Colorado - Straight up Colorado 2.45
Florida Intl v UL Monroe - Un Monroe Straight up 1.154
Before 19:30
New Mexico v San Diego State - Straight up New Mexico 1.267
Minnesota Wild v St Louis Blues - Minesota Wild -1.5 - 3.2
Colorado State v UNLV - Colorado State straight up 2.25
Before Sunday at 12:00
Atlanta Falcons v New Orleans Saints - Straight up New Orleans Saints 1.22
Baltimore Ravens v Buffalo Bills - Straight up Baltimore Ravens 1.606
San Francisco 49ers v New York Giants - Straight up New York Giants 1.2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Detroit Lions - Game Total under 44.5 1.909
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Detroit Lions - Straight up Tamba Bay Bucaneers
Before 15:00
Minnesota Vikings v Dallas Cowboys - Dallas cowboys -9.5 - 1.952
New York Jets v Cincinnati Bengals - Straight up New York Jets 3.4
Chicago Bears v Philadelphia Eagles - Straight up Phily 1.4
Before 18:00
Pittsburgh Steelers v Denver Broncos - Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 - 1.87
Indianapolis Colts v Jacksonville Jaguars - Game total over 44.5- 1.909
Indianapolis Colts v Jacksonville Jaguars - Straight up Jacksonville Jags
Thats 7 parlays, will post next 2 when available.
BAHHH - Tried actually doing this in real life but I just activated my credit card, and I couldn’t insert funds online for some reason… I’ll have to sort that out and I’ll just run this one as a test and see what happens. Probably better that we do a trial run anways.
First bought it at 24.72 but it had it’s stop order triggered 24.53. Feeling confident in it and unhappy about the loss I got in again at 24.65 and sold at 25.00
Overall I didn’t gain any or loose anything because of cost per couple trades.
I found this SNL skit that aired this weekend really funny.
Can’t get the music out of my head.
Other than that I got a review copy of Timothy Sykes book; An American Hedge Fund straight from the man himself. Around 250 pages so I should be done it fast.
Correct Parlays
90 T CORRECT, 92 V CORRECT, 99V CORRECT Odds 1/8.30
94 V CORRECT, 95 H CORRECT, 97 H CORRECT Odds 1/8.78
Two of the parlays won. And neither one of them were the 9th trial. It was the 4th and 6th parlay (just like expected it’d be near middle)
So time for some math.
Assuming you did $10 on each parlay ticket, you would of spent $40 and made $83.00 for a net profit of $43. (107.5% profit)
Then if you spent $60 you would of made $83.00 + $87.80 = $171 minus $60 = $111 (+185% profit)
This is huge. I picked every parlay RANDOMLY with no intuition, I just made sure the odds add up to my desired number. With the stock market you can make 1-5% on average lets say a day. Here you made 107% profit with this experiment.
Time to check it’s reproducibility over the next few trials so we don’t get too happy too fast
This is in follow up to my previous post found here.
Ok so it’s Week 6 of the NFL and time for me to do another experiment. By using last week’s results where none of the 10, 1-to-10 odd parlays won, I’ll try to figure out reasons why it didn’t work.
The best reason I can think of it not working is a little hard to explain. The parlay odds all were 1/10, but the average odds were 1/2.157 per winning game pick. So using the parlays that had 3 games, it would equal exactly 1 in 10.04 odd just like I picked for the week (and it should have REALLY WORKED). But looking at the week before that (week 4) the average odds were 1/2.67 which with three games would give an overall 1/19.0 odds. 19.0 is just (2.67)^3. So this average odd per game changes by a considerable amount each week and can’t be predicted ahead of time for any advantage.
I thought about point spread as the approach, but the house really takes over since if you pick two games each with 1/2 odds you’ll only get 1/2 overall instead of 1/4. Then on 3 games you get 1/4, 4=> 1/8, 5=> 1/15, 6=>1/25 and so on..
So it lead me to thinking how the parlays all shared games with other ones. It meant 1 loosing game affects 1 to about 4 parlays. This is a real problem. So for this week, the parlays will not rely on each other (just last 2 since not enough games to pick on this Sunday and I had to include other sporting events outside than NFL).
Using 1/9 odds with +- 10%
84 T, 85 V Odds 1/9
86 H, 87 T, 89 H Odds 1/9.49
88 V, 91 H Odds 1/9
90 T, 92 V, 99V Odds 1/8.30
93 T, 98 H Odds 1/8.20
94 V, 95 H, 97 H Odds 1/8.78
96 H, 100 T Odds 1/9
91 H, 97 H, 100 H, 101 V Odds 1/9.30 (shared games)
Control Group: 88 H, 90 V, 96T Odds 1/8.87 (shared games)
I won’t actually wager this time around. Also pretend we’re doing each parlay 1 week at a time (just like explained in the post where once you win you take your winnings and walk away and not do the rest of the parlays since it’s unconventional)
There’s a lot of talk going around blogs about Timothy Sykes new book “An American Hedge Fund: How I Made $2 Million as a Stock Operator & Created a Hedge Fund”
This guy is just like me, started off with same amount of money but only turned it into 2 million by the time he was 22
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